Outlook worsens for 2008 U.S. Construction Recovery

It may have seemed like a slow news day with a couple Presidential Primaries, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down just 10.99, and no updates to be found about Britney Spears. Unfortunately, some frightening data came forward today that will add pressure to Fence Installers and other construction services around the country.

Bad News #1:

Crude oil closes above $100.00 per barrel for the first time ever. Look for more pressure on vinyl pricing and lots more bad news at the pump for the near future

Bad News #2:

US Steel reported today that it has accomplished an astounding 65% price hike in steel settlements. UBS followed the news with an immediate upgrade on the companies stock price. In this case the good news for US Steel is terrible news for those of us who buy it and install it. The paradigm trapping the construction economy is continuing: Extremely high raw material prices combined with consumer credit issues has crippled the residential construction economy and is now threatening commercial building and credit. www.Kitco.com's Base Metal Index shows that material prices are rising quickly and may challenge some all time highs in the coming months should trends hold. Here is the 30 day trend chart (click to enlarge):

Bad News #3:

Barack Obama is now completely in control of DNC primary and a 78 to 21 favorite to beat Hillary Clinton for the Nomination according to the best political projector of the moment: www.intrade.com. Obama now also holds 55.4 to 34.2 lead over John McCain on Intrade's Presidential Election odds page (As of 11PM EST). A President Obama would effect your small business in the following ways:
1. Bush tax cuts will not become permanent and will expire.
2. Capital Gains taxes will rise from the current 15% to 28% or beyond on your investments.
3. Death Tax Law will likely become increasingly confiscatory with the current allowance of 3.5 million most likely reduced. Currently, 22,0000 families are penalized each year - many are family businesses. Large Corporations are not affected and will only gain the additional advantage of buying more small business at give away prices. (More on Obama's tax plan)

All in all Feb 19th, 2008 - A Day to forget - if you can.